My 2026 March Madness Bracket Picks

21 min read By Tom

Every year I fill out a bracket knowing full well it’ll be busted by Thursday night. But that’s the whole point. You commit to something on paper, defend it to your friends, and then watch a 12-seed from a school you’ve never heard of tear the whole thing apart.

Here’s where I landed this year.

East Region

The East is loaded. Duke and UConn on the same side of the bracket feels cruel, but I’m riding UConn’s experience to the Elite Eight and beyond.

1 Duke vs 16 Siena Duke
8 Ohio St. vs 9 TCU Ohio St.
5 St. John's vs 12 N. Iowa N. Iowa ⚠
4 Kansas vs 13 Cal Baptist Kansas
6 Louisville vs 11 South Florida Louisville
3 Michigan St. vs 14 North Dakota St. Michigan St.
7 UCLA vs 10 UCF UCLA
2 UConn vs 15 Furman UConn

Northern Iowa over St. John’s is my first upset pick. St. John’s has been inconsistent down the stretch and N. Iowa plays that suffocating mid-major defense that gives tournament teams fits.

Round of 32
Duke over Ohio St.
Kansas over N. Iowa
Michigan St. over Louisville
UConn over UCLA
Sweet 16
Duke over Kansas
UConn over Michigan St.
Elite Eight
UConn over Duke

UConn over Duke in the Elite Eight. I keep going back and forth on this one, but UConn in March just hits different. They’ve been here before and it shows.

West Region

Arizona’s the top seed but I’ve got Miami pulling off upsets to make the Elite Eight. Hear me out.

1 Arizona vs 16 LIU Arizona
8 Villanova vs 9 Utah St. Utah St.
5 Wisconsin vs 12 High Point Wisconsin
4 Arkansas vs 13 Hawaii Arkansas
6 BYU vs 11 Texas/NC State BYU
3 Gonzaga vs 14 Kennesaw St. Gonzaga
7 Miami vs 10 Missouri Miami
2 Purdue vs 15 Queens Purdue

No real chaos in the first round here. Utah St. over Villanova is borderline, but the Mountain West has been tough this year.

Round of 32
Arizona over Utah St.
Wisconsin over Arkansas
Gonzaga over BYU
Miami over Purdue ⚠
Sweet 16
Arizona over Wisconsin
Miami over Gonzaga ⚠
Elite Eight
Arizona over Miami

Miami’s run ends in the Elite Eight. Arizona’s just too deep. But Miami over Purdue and Gonzaga back-to-back would be a great story.

South Region

Florida’s the top seed but Houston is my pick to come out of this region. The Cougars defend like they take it personally.

1 Florida vs 16 Prairie View/Lehigh Florida
8 Clemson vs 9 Iowa Iowa
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 McNeese Vanderbilt
4 Nebraska vs 13 Troy Nebraska
6 North Carolina vs 11 VCU VCU ⚠
3 Illinois vs 14 Penn Illinois
7 Maryland vs 10 Texas A&M Maryland
2 Houston vs 15 Idaho Houston

VCU over North Carolina. VCU lives for this. Havoc ball in March is a nightmare matchup for a team like UNC that can get careless with the ball.

Round of 32
Florida over Iowa
Vanderbilt over Nebraska
Illinois over VCU
Houston over Maryland
Sweet 16
Florida over Vanderbilt
Houston over Illinois
Elite Eight
Houston over Florida

Houston’s defense is the kind of thing that wears you down over four games. Florida’s good, but Houston in a grind-it-out Elite Eight game? I’ll take the Cougars.

Midwest Region

This is where I get weird. Akron over Texas Tech, Michigan to the Final Four, and yes, I believe in it.

1 Michigan vs 16 UMBC/Howard Michigan
8 Georgia vs 9 Saint Louis Saint Louis
5 Texas Tech vs 12 Akron Akron ⚠
4 Alabama vs 13 Hofstra Alabama
6 Tennessee vs 11 Miami OH/SMU Tennessee
3 Virginia vs 14 Wright St. Virginia
7 Kentucky vs 10 Santa Clara Kentucky
2 Iowa St. vs 15 Tenn. State Iowa St.

Akron over Texas Tech is my big upset pick. Every year there’s a 12-over-5 that feels obvious in hindsight. This is the one.

Round of 32
Michigan over Saint Louis
Akron over Alabama ⚠
Virginia over Tennessee
Iowa St. over Kentucky
Sweet 16
Michigan over Akron
Iowa St. over Virginia
Elite Eight
Michigan over Iowa St.

Akron’s run ends in the Sweet 16, but what a ride. Michigan’s balanced offense and Big Ten toughness carry them through.

The Final Four

Semifinal 1
UConn East vs Houston South
Houston advances
Semifinal 2
Arizona West vs Michigan Midwest
Michigan advances
National Championship
Houston vs Michigan
Houston wins it all

Houston over Michigan for the title. I know, I know. Michigan’s had a great year and the storylines are there. But Houston’s defense is championship-level, and Kelvin Sampson’s teams don’t crack under pressure. The Cougars win it all.


Check back in three weeks to see how badly this aged.